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UID:20260203T094904EST-2485mVRLeo@132.216.98.100
DTSTAMP:20260203T144904Z
DESCRIPTION:Samia Badidi\n\nTilburg University \n\nForecast Dispersion and 
 the Price Impact of Macroeconomic News\n\nDate: Friday\, January 30\, 2026
 \n	Time: 11:30 am - 1:00 pm\n	Location: Bronfman building\, Room 340\n\nAll 
 are cordially invited to attend.\n\n\nAbstract\n\nA large literature in ma
 cro-finance examines how financial markets respond to macroeconomic news\,
  yet little is known about how the composition of the forecaster pool shap
 es these responses. Using data on 25 major U.S. macroeconomic announcement
 s\, I document that forecast dispersion has a strong negative effect on ma
 rket reactions\, challenging the conventional interpretation of dispersion
  as a proxy for uncertainty. To reconcile this puzzle\, I develop a noisy 
 rational expectations model in which dispersion reflects analyst heterogen
 eity\, with its informational content depending on the share of experience
 d analysts. When experienced analysts dominate\, low dispersion indicates 
 precise pre-announcement information\, reducing the announcement’s price i
 mpact. Conversely\, when inexperienced analysts dominate\, low dispersion 
 reflects shrinkage toward noisy common information\, increasing price impa
 ct. Using lagged analyst experience as an instrument\, I confirm that the 
 relationship between dispersion and price impact switches sign depending o
 n the share of experienced analysts. These findings reveal an important ch
 annel through which analyst heterogeneity affects price discovery.\n
DTSTART:20260130T163000Z
DTEND:20260130T180000Z
LOCATION:Room 340\, Bronfman Building\, CA\, QC\, Montreal\, H3A 1G5\, 1001
  rue Sherbrooke Ouest
SUMMARY:Finance Area Seminar: Samia Badidi
URL:/desautels/channels/event/finance-area-seminar-sam
 ia-badidi-370626
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